Troyes v Le Havre
18+Ligue 1 · Fri 20 Nov, 19:45
Data: good
- Troyes win
- 47%
- Draw
- 23%
- Le Havre win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Troyes to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Troyes strength rating 1574 v Le Havre 1567
- Troyes home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
- Le Havre away form: 0W 1D 3L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 43%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 10.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.