Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Crewe Alexandra win
- 46%
- Draw
- 24%
- Newport County win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Crewe Alexandra to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1450 v Newport County 1448
- Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 3W 3D 0L
- Newport County away form: 0W 3D 4L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
- Crewe Alexandra have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 47%, goals 40%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Newport County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 12.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.