Barnet v Port Vale
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Barnet win
- 58%
- Draw
- 19%
- Port Vale win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barnet to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score63 / 100 · Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barnet strength rating 1484 v Port Vale 1429
- Barnet home record this season: 4W 2D 1L
- Port Vale away form: 0W 1D 5L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Barnet +10 v Port Vale -4
- Barnet have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 56%, goals 61%, recent form 59%)
Main uncertainty: Port Vale are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model56%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model59%
Component disagreement: 4.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.