Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Port Vale win
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- Accrington Stanley win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Port Vale to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Port Vale strength rating 1429 v Accrington Stanley 1463
- Port Vale home record this season: 4W 2D 0L
- Accrington Stanley away form: 1W 3D 3L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
- Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 39%, goals 31%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model39%
- Goals model31%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 16.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 37% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.