Newport County v Swindon Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Newport County win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- Swindon Town win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Newport County to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Newport County strength rating 1448 v Swindon Town 1434
- Newport County home record this season: 4W 3D 0L
- Swindon Town away form: 1W 2D 4L, 3 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Newport County +3 v Swindon Town -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 59%)
Main uncertainty: Swindon Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model59%
Component disagreement: 9.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.