Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Exeter City win
- 48%
- Draw
- 24%
- Cheltenham Town win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Exeter City to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Exeter City strength rating 1454 v Cheltenham Town 1443
- Exeter City home record this season: 4W 3D 0L
- Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 2D 3L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Exeter City +3 v Cheltenham Town +1
- Exeter City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 48%, goals 45%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 10.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.