Northampton Town v Rochdale
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Northampton Town win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- Rochdale win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Northampton Town to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Northampton Town strength rating 1437 v Rochdale 1406
- Northampton Town home record this season: 2W 2D 2L
- Rochdale away form: 1W 2D 4L, 7 scored / 13 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Northampton Town -1 v Rochdale -9
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 52%, goals 48%, recent form 51%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model51%
Component disagreement: 3.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.