Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Chesterfield win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- Shrewsbury Town win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chesterfield strength rating 1449 v Shrewsbury Town 1430
- Chesterfield home record this season: 3W 3D 1L
- Shrewsbury Town away form: 2W 2D 3L, 9 scored / 14 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Chesterfield +3 v Shrewsbury Town -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Shrewsbury Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 15.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.