Crawley Town v Fleetwood Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Crawley Town win
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- Fleetwood Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Crawley Town to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Crawley Town strength rating 1395 v Fleetwood Town 1429
- Crawley Town home record this season: 0W 2D 4L
- Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 4L, 8 scored / 13 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 40%, goals 36%, recent form 45%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model36%
- Recent-form model45%
Component disagreement: 9.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.