Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Bristol Rovers win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Chesterfield win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bristol Rovers to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bristol Rovers strength rating 1422 v Chesterfield 1449
- Bristol Rovers home record this season: 4W 1D 2L
- Chesterfield away form: 2W 1D 4L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 38%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 2.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.