Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Shrewsbury Town win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Oldham Athletic win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Shrewsbury Town to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Shrewsbury Town strength rating 1430 v Oldham Athletic 1417
- Shrewsbury Town home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 2D 4L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
- Shrewsbury Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 43%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. Oldham Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 23.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.