Colchester United v Gillingham
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Colchester United win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Gillingham win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Colchester United to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Colchester United strength rating 1421 v Gillingham 1439
- Colchester United home record this season: 2W 3D 0L
- Gillingham away form: 2W 2D 2L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 35%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 9.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.