Rochdale v York City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Rochdale win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- York City win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Rochdale to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Rochdale strength rating 1406 v York City 1448
- Rochdale home record this season: 3W 1D 3L
- York City away form: 0W 3D 4L, 8 scored / 16 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 38%, goals 34%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model38%
- Goals model34%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 19.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.