Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Gillingham win
- 43%
- Draw
- 26%
- Crewe Alexandra win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Gillingham to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Gillingham strength rating 1439 v Crewe Alexandra 1450
- Gillingham home record this season: 2W 3D 2L
- Crewe Alexandra away form: 2W 3D 2L, 5 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Gillingham +1 v Crewe Alexandra 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 45%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 6.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.