Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Swindon Town win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Grimsby Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Swindon Town to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Swindon Town strength rating 1434 v Grimsby Town 1456
- Swindon Town home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
- Grimsby Town away form: 1W 4D 2L, 11 scored / 10 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 34%, recent form 46%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model34%
- Recent-form model46%
Component disagreement: 11.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:06), now 40%.
- 2 new results added
- Away strength rating up 11 points
- Updated rest days for the away club
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.