Birmingham City v Swansea City
18+EFL Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Birmingham City win
- 48%
- Draw
- 24%
- Swansea City win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Birmingham City to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Birmingham City strength rating 1599 v Swansea City 1583
- Birmingham City home record this season: 2W 4D 0L
- Swansea City away form: 4W 0D 2L, 9 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Birmingham City +10 v Swansea City +4
- Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 8.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.