Derby County v Bolton Wanderers
18+EFL Championship · Fri 6 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Derby County win
- 36%
- Draw
- 24%
- Bolton Wanderers win
- 40%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bolton Wanderers to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score27 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bolton Wanderers strength rating 1537 v Derby County 1514
- Bolton Wanderers away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
- Derby County home form: 0W 2D 4L, 4 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bolton Wanderers -7 v Derby County -14
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 32%, goals 39%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model32%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 24.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.