Cardiff City v Burnley
18+EFL Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Cardiff City win
- 55%
- Draw
- 20%
- Burnley win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cardiff City to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cardiff City strength rating 1562 v Burnley 1528
- Cardiff City home record this season: 3W 3D 0L
- Burnley away form: 1W 1D 4L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Cardiff City 0 v Burnley -8
- Cardiff City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 9.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 57% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.