Watford v Lincoln City
18+EFL Championship · Tue 3 Nov, 19:45
Data: excellent
- Watford win
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Lincoln City win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Watford to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Watford strength rating 1517 v Lincoln City 1530
- Watford home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Lincoln City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 7 conceded
- Lincoln City played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 9.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.