Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
18+EFL Championship · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Bolton Wanderers win
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- Portsmouth win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bolton Wanderers to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bolton Wanderers strength rating 1537 v Portsmouth 1565
- Bolton Wanderers home record this season: 2W 0D 4L
- Portsmouth away form: 2W 2D 2L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 37%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Portsmouth have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 4.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.