Stoke City v Birmingham City
18+EFL Championship · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Stoke City win
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Birmingham City win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stoke City to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stoke City strength rating 1579 v Birmingham City 1599
- Stoke City home record this season: 4W 1D 2L
- Birmingham City away form: 4W 1D 2L, 9 scored / 6 conceded
- Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 38%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Birmingham City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 4.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.