Derby County v Norwich City
18+EFL Championship · Tue 3 Nov, 19:45
Data: excellent
- Derby County win
- 34%
- Draw
- 25%
- Norwich City win
- 41%
FootyGrounds prediction
Norwich City to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Norwich City strength rating 1551 v Derby County 1514
- Norwich City away record this season: 2W 0D 4L
- Derby County home form: 0W 2D 4L, 4 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Norwich City -1 v Derby County -14
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 34%, goals 46%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 14.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
- 2 new results added
- Away strength rating up 4 points
- Updated rest days for the away club
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.