Birmingham City v Millwall
18+EFL Championship · Tue 3 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Birmingham City win
- 56%
- Draw
- 19%
- Millwall win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Birmingham City to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Birmingham City strength rating 1599 v Millwall 1552
- Birmingham City home record this season: 2W 4D 0L
- Millwall away form: 2W 1D 3L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Birmingham City +10 v Millwall +2
- Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 56%, recent form 61%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model61%
Component disagreement: 5.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.