Wrexham v Middlesbrough
18+EFL Championship · Wed 4 Nov, 19:45
Data: excellent
- Wrexham win
- 33%
- Draw
- 26%
- Middlesbrough win
- 41%
FootyGrounds prediction
Middlesbrough to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Middlesbrough strength rating 1608 v Wrexham 1548
- Middlesbrough away record this season: 3W 2D 1L
- Wrexham home form: 2W 2D 2L, 10 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Middlesbrough +11 v Wrexham -4
- Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 36%, goals 46%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 10.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.