Portsmouth v Swansea City
18+EFL Championship · Tue 3 Nov, 19:45
Data: excellent
- Portsmouth win
- 41%
- Draw
- 27%
- Swansea City win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Portsmouth strength rating 1565 v Swansea City 1583
- Portsmouth home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Swansea City away form: 4W 0D 2L, 9 scored / 10 conceded
- Portsmouth have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 39%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 3.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.