Watford v Middlesbrough
18+EFL Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Watford win
- 28%
- Draw
- 23%
- Middlesbrough win
- 48%
FootyGrounds prediction
Middlesbrough to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Middlesbrough strength rating 1608 v Watford 1517
- Middlesbrough away record this season: 3W 2D 1L
- Watford home form: 3W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Middlesbrough +11 v Watford -11
- Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 42%, goals 55%, recent form 51%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model51%
Component disagreement: 12.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.