Preston North End v Southampton
18+EFL Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Preston North End win
- 24%
- Draw
- 21%
- Southampton win
- 55%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southampton to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southampton strength rating 1606 v Preston North End 1492
- Southampton away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
- Preston North End home form: 1W 1D 4L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Southampton +13 v Preston North End -17
- Southampton have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 47%, goals 63%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model63%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 16.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.