Portsmouth v Stoke City
18+EFL Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Portsmouth win
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Stoke City win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Portsmouth strength rating 1565 v Stoke City 1579
- Portsmouth home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Stoke City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
- Portsmouth have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 37%)
Main uncertainty: Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model37%
Component disagreement: 6.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.