Southampton v Derby County
18+EFL Championship · Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Southampton win
- 67%
- Draw
- 16%
- Derby County win
- 17%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southampton to win
Model probability 67%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score66 / 100 · Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southampton strength rating 1606 v Derby County 1514
- Southampton home record this season: 5W 1D 0L
- Derby County away form: 1W 2D 3L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Southampton +13 v Derby County -14
- Southampton have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 67% (Elo 62%, goals 74%, recent form 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model62%
- Goals model74%
- Recent-form model68%
Component disagreement: 11.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 66% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 67%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.