Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers
18+EFL Championship · Tue 3 Nov, 19:45
Data: excellent
- Charlton Athletic win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bolton Wanderers win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Charlton Athletic to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Charlton Athletic strength rating 1534 v Bolton Wanderers 1537
- Charlton Athletic home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
- Bolton Wanderers away form: 2W 2D 2L, 9 scored / 11 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 46%, goals 42%, recent form 31%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model31%
Component disagreement: 14.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.