Norwich City v Cardiff City
18+EFL Championship · Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Norwich City win
- 45%
- Draw
- 24%
- Cardiff City win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Norwich City to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Norwich City strength rating 1551 v Cardiff City 1562
- Norwich City home record this season: 3W 0D 4L
- Cardiff City away form: 0W 2D 4L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 44%, goals 46%, recent form 45%)
Main uncertainty: Cardiff City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model45%
Component disagreement: 2.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 45%.
- 2 new results added
- Home strength rating up 4 points
- Updated rest days for the home club
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.