FC Barcelona v Alavés
18+La Liga · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00
Data: excellent
- FC Barcelona win
- 69%
- Draw
- 15%
- Alavés win
- 17%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Barcelona to win
Model probability 69%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score64 / 100 · Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Barcelona strength rating 1713 v Alavés 1620
- FC Barcelona home record this season: 4W 0D 1L
- Alavés away form: 0W 2D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: FC Barcelona +29 v Alavés +3
- FC Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 69% (Elo 62%, goals 73%, recent form 77%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model62%
- Goals model73%
- Recent-form model77%
Component disagreement: 14.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 69% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 69%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.