Racing de Santander v Real Madrid
18+La Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 15:15
Data: excellent
- Racing de Santander win
- 28%
- Draw
- 24%
- Real Madrid win
- 48%
FootyGrounds prediction
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
1–3 (range 0–2 to 2–4)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Real Madrid strength rating 1674 v Racing de Santander 1593
- Real Madrid away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
- Racing de Santander home form: 3W 2D 0L, 11 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Real Madrid +15 v Racing de Santander -11
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 40%, goals 64%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model64%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 24.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.