Athletic Club v Real Sociedad
18+La Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 20:00
Data: good
- Athletic Club win
- 44%
- Draw
- 24%
- Real Sociedad win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Athletic Club strength rating 1627 v Real Sociedad 1634
- Athletic Club home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
- Real Sociedad away form: 3W 0D 2L, 12 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Athletic Club +3 v Real Sociedad +1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 49%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 16.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.