CA Osasuna v Athletic Club
18+La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 17:30
Data: good
- CA Osasuna win
- 35%
- Draw
- 27%
- Athletic Club win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Athletic Club strength rating 1627 v CA Osasuna 1592
- Athletic Club away record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- CA Osasuna home form: 2W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Athletic Club +3 v CA Osasuna -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 46%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. CA Osasuna have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 12.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.