Elche v Valencia CF
18+La Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 17:30
Data: excellent
- Elche win
- 52%
- Draw
- 22%
- Valencia CF win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Elche to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Elche strength rating 1610 v Valencia CF 1579
- Elche home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
- Valencia CF away form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Elche -3 v Valencia CF -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 52%, goals 55%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 10.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.