Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Northampton Town win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Oldham Athletic win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Northampton Town to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Northampton Town strength rating 1431 v Oldham Athletic 1438
- Northampton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 36%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model36%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 18.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.