Sevilla FC v FC Barcelona
18+La Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Sevilla FC win
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Barcelona win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Barcelona to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Barcelona strength rating 1681 v Sevilla FC 1629
- FC Barcelona away record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Sevilla FC home form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: FC Barcelona +17 v Sevilla FC +2
- FC Barcelona unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 35%, goals 53%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Sevilla FC are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 18.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.