Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig
18+Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Bayer Leverkusen win
- 47%
- Draw
- 22%
- RB Leipzig win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bayer Leverkusen strength rating 1627 v RB Leipzig 1633
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 14.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.