Elgin City v Stranraer
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Elgin City win
- 47%
- Draw
- 23%
- Stranraer win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Elgin City to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Elgin City strength rating 1462 v Stranraer 1460
- Elgin City home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Stranraer away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Elgin City +9 v Stranraer +5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 51%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Stranraer are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 10.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.