Getafe CF v Málaga
18+La Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 12:00
Data: excellent
- Getafe CF win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- Málaga win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Getafe CF to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Getafe CF strength rating 1610 v Málaga 1601
- Getafe CF home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Málaga away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Getafe CF -3 v Málaga -6
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Málaga are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 17.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.