Ayr United v Stenhousemuir
18+Scottish Championship · Fri 25 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Ayr United win
- 29%
- Draw
- 27%
- Stenhousemuir win
- 44%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stenhousemuir to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stenhousemuir strength rating 1598 v Ayr United 1544
- Stenhousemuir away record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Ayr United home form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stenhousemuir +8 v Ayr United -3
- Stenhousemuir unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 35%, goals 50%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 18.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.