Brentford v Chelsea
18+Premier League · Fri 18 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Brentford win
- 48%
- Draw
- 23%
- Chelsea win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Brentford to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Brentford strength rating 1630 v Chelsea 1627
- Superior goal difference: Brentford +3 v Chelsea +1
- Brentford unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 52%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 10.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.