Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Plymouth Argyle win
- 49%
- Draw
- 22%
- Burton Albion win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Plymouth Argyle to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Plymouth Argyle strength rating 1507 v Burton Albion 1502
- Plymouth Argyle home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Burton Albion away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Plymouth Argyle +2 v Burton Albion 0
- Plymouth Argyle have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 50%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 5.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.