Harrogate Town v Eastleigh
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Harrogate Town win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Eastleigh win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Harrogate Town to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Harrogate Town strength rating 1407 v Eastleigh 1381
- Harrogate Town home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Eastleigh away form: 1W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Harrogate Town +7 v Eastleigh 0
- Harrogate Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 51%, goals 56%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 4.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.