Stenhousemuir v Arbroath
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Stenhousemuir win
- 60%
- Draw
- 20%
- Arbroath win
- 20%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stenhousemuir to win
Model probability 60%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score58 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stenhousemuir strength rating 1598 v Arbroath 1553
- Stenhousemuir home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Arbroath away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stenhousemuir +8 v Arbroath -4
- Stenhousemuir unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 65%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Arbroath are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model65%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 10.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 60%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.