Glentoran v Carrick Rangers
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Glentoran win
- 42%
- Draw
- 25%
- Carrick Rangers win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Glentoran to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Glentoran strength rating 1615 v Carrick Rangers 1620
- Glentoran home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Carrick Rangers away form: 2W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Carrick Rangers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model32%
Component disagreement: 12.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.