Penybont v Airbus UK
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 26 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Penybont win
- 57%
- Draw
- 20%
- Airbus UK win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Penybont to win
Model probability 57%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Penybont strength rating 1660 v Airbus UK 1613
- Penybont home record this season: 3W 2D 0L
- Airbus UK away form: 2W 0D 3L, 5 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Penybont +8 v Airbus UK -1
- Penybont unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 55%, goals 57%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model57%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 4.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 57% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 57%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.