Bristol Rovers v Exeter City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Bristol Rovers win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Exeter City win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bristol Rovers to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bristol Rovers strength rating 1458 v Exeter City 1433
- Bristol Rovers home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Exeter City away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bristol Rovers +4 v Exeter City -1
- Bristol Rovers have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 51%, goals 51%, recent form 75%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model75%
Component disagreement: 24.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.