Forest Green Rovers v Boston United
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Forest Green Rovers win
- 49%
- Draw
- 23%
- Boston United win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Forest Green Rovers to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Forest Green Rovers strength rating 1382 v Boston United 1366
- Forest Green Rovers home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Boston United away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Forest Green Rovers +1 v Boston United -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 1.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.